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Abstract The heat transfer between the warm oceanic water and the floating portion of the Antarctic ice sheet (the ice shelves) occurs in a dynamic environment with year‐to‐year changes in the distribution of icebergs and fast‐ice (the “icescape”). Dramatic events such as the collapse of glacier tongues are apparent in satellite images but oceanographic observations are insufficient to capture the synoptic impact of such events on the supply of oceanic heat to ice shelves. This study uses a 3D numerical model and semi‐idealized experiments to examine whether the current high melting rates of ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea could be mitigated by certain icescape configurations. Specifically, the experiments quantify the impacts on oceanic heat supply of presence/absence of the Thwaites Glacier Tongue, Bear Ridge Iceberg Chain, tabular iceberg B22, and fast‐ice cover seaward of Pine Island Ice Shelf (PIS). The experiments reveal that future changes in the coastal icescape are unlikely to reverse the high ice shelf melting rates of the Amundsen Sea, and that icescape changes between 2011 and 2022 actually enhanced them slightly. Ice shelves such as Crosson and Thwaites are found to have multiple viable sources of oceanic heat whose relative importance may shift following icescape reconfigurations but the overall heat supply remains high. Similarly, the formation of a fast‐ice cover seaward of PIS slows down the cavity circulation (by 7%) but does not reduce its heat supply. 

Abstract The Ross Sea is known for showing the greatest sea-ice increase, as observed globally, particularly from 1979 to 2015. However, corresponding changes in sea-ice thickness and production in the Ross Sea are not known, nor how these changes have impacted water masses, carbon fluxes, biogeochemical processes and availability of micronutrients. The PIPERS project sought to address these questions during an autumn ship campaign in 2017 and two spring airborne campaigns in 2016 and 2017. PIPERS used a multidisciplinary approach of manned and autonomous platforms to study the coupled air/ice/ocean/biogeochemical interactions during autumn and related those to spring conditions. Unexpectedly, the Ross Sea experienced record low sea ice in spring 2016 and autumn 2017. The delayed ice advance in 2017 contributed to (1) increased ice production and export in coastal polynyas, (2) thinner snow and ice cover in the central pack, (3) lower sea-ice Chl- a burdens and differences in sympagic communities, (4) sustained ocean heat flux delaying ice thickening and (5) a melting, anomalously southward ice edge persisting into winter. Despite these impacts, airborne observations in spring 2017 suggest that winter ice production over the continental shelf was likely not anomalous.